42 resultados para Basic Reproduction Number

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number (R0) estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations, the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda should take biodiversity issues into consideration. © 2013 Laporta et al.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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The lethargic crab disease (LCD) is an emergent infirmity that has decimated native populations of the mangrove land crab (Ucides cordatus, Decapoda: Ocypodidae) along the Brazilian coast. Several potential etiological agents have been linked with LCD, but only in 2005 was it proved that it is caused by an ascomycete fungus. This is the first attempt to develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiological dynamics of LCD. The model presents four possible scenarios, namely, the trivial equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and limit cycles arising from a Hopf bifurcation. The threshold values depend on the basic reproductive number of crabs and fungi, and on the infection rate. These scenarios depend on both the biological assumptions and the temporal evolution of the disease. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and illustrate the different temporal dynamics of the crab and fungus populations.

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Individuals of two populations of the fish Characidium cf. fasciatum were cytogenetically studied and showed a basic diploid number of 50 chromosomes. Some fishes were found to have 51 to 54 chromosomes due to the presence of one to four small subtelocentric/acrocentric supernumerary chromosomes. When analyzed by conventional Giemsa staining, male and female specimens of C. cf. fasciatum from the Quinta stream and Pardo River presented the same basic karyotypic macro- and microstructure, consisting of 32 metacentric and 18 submetacentric chromosomes.Ag-NORs were terminally located on the long arms of two submetacentric chromosome pairs. Constitutive heterochromatin was identified by C-banding as small pericentromeric blocks in the majority of the chromosomes, and B-chromosomes were found to be heterochromatic. The occurrence of one totally heterochromatic submetacentric chromosome restricted to females and considered as an unusual feature in fish karyotypes led to the identification of a ZZ/ZW sex-chromosome system. The implications of chromosomic differentiation observed in the genus Characidium are discussed.

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Karyotypes of six species of the genus Stevia from Southern Brazil were studied, utilizing root tip metaphases. All species were diploid with 2n = 22 chromosomes. It was possible to identify each species by chromosome morphology. The basic chromosome number for Brazilian species of Stevia is X = 11. This number is also found in almost all South American species. We suggest that in Stevia there is an evolutionary trend toward chromosomal rearrangement, caused mainly by pericentric inversions. It was found that, in addition to aneuploidy and polyploidy, chromosomal rearrangements are common in the tribe Eupatorieae.

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This is the first karyotype characterization of Brachiaria species. Twelve accessions belonging to five species were analysed. The basic chromosome number was x = 9 and 7, the same reported for the tribe Paniceae. Variations in the chromosome number were observed in B. decumbens (2n = 18; 36) and B. humidicola (20 = 36; 42; 54). Chromosome numbers of 20 = 18 in B. ruziziensis and 20 = 36 in B. brizantha and B. jubata were recorded. Inter- and intraspecific karyotype differentiation of the accessions analysed was facilitated by variations in karyotypic symmetry. The karyotypes were generally considered symmetrical, with a tendency to asymmetry in the direction of the polyploids. It is suggested that addition, deletions and mainly polyploidy have been the most direct causes involved in the chromosome evolution of this genus.

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In this study we consider the SIS epidemiological model (susceptible-infected-susceptible) in which the transmission and recuperation rates are considered fuzzy sets. The concepts of possibility measures and fuzzy expectancy value are used to obtain the basic reproduction value for infected groups with different viral charge.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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This work was carried out to verify the effect of a glyphosate-based herbicide on Jundia hormones (cortisol, 17 beta-estradiol and testosterone), oocyte and swim-up fry production. Earthen ponds containing Jundia females were contaminated with glyphosate (3.6 mg/L); blood samples were collected from eight females from each treatment immediately before, or at 1, 10, 20 30 and 40 days following contamination. A typical post-stress rise in cortisol levels was observed at the 20th and 40th days following exposure to glyphosate. At the 40th day, 17 beta-estradiol was decreased in the exposed females. A similar number of oocytes were stripped out from females from both groups, however, a lower number of viable swim-up fry were obtained from the herbicide exposed females, which also had a higher liver-somatic index (LSI). The results indicate that the presence of glyphosate in water was deleterious to Rhamdia quelen reproduction, altering steroid profiles and egg viability. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This study investigated the effect of different photoperiods (24 h of light (L):0 h of darkness (D); 20L:4D; 16L:8D; 12L:12D; and 8L:16D) on the reproduction and growth of Betta splendens. The results showed that spawning frequency was significantly higher in couples reared under 16L:8D and 12L:12D, in comparison with other treatments. The highest number of eggs per spawn was obtained under 16L:8D (544.76±375.23) and 12L:12D (471.13±261.52), and the lowest values were detected for 24L:0D (128.55±58.14) and 20L:4D (187.87±103.84). Fertility and fecundity also showed significantly higher average values in 16L:8D and 12L:12D when compared with 24L:0D and 20L:4D treatments. Egg volume and perivitelline space were significantly higher in 24L:0D treatments that showed the lowest numbers of eggs per spawn, while the vitelline volume did not show significant differences. Other variables such as breeders weight gain and condition factor (K) were not statistically different. Moreover, the final length varies according to photoperiod and gender. These results demonstrated a key role for the photoperiod upon B. splendens reproduction. The best reproductive performance is achieved under the photoperiods that best approached those that occur in spring and summer (16L:8D and 12L:12D), coinciding with their best seasons for reproduction.